BPCL Q2 PAT likely to take a hit on forex losses weak profitability due to crude shock

Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) is likely to witness some pressure on its profit after tax (PAT) as forex losses are likely to take a toll. Crude prices have seen steady increase during the quarter under review. Brokerages also expect gross refining margins (GRMs) in the range of $5-7 per barrel for the quarter under review.

Here is a gist of what brokerages are estimating from the company.

Brokerage: Kotak Institutional Equities | PAT: Rs 1,355.7 crore

The brokerage house expects QoQ decline in EBITDA despite steady marketing margins, reflecting lower adventitious gains and higher forex-related loss.

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It is assuming stable crude throughput at 7.7 million tonnes and 4% YoY growth in sales volumes to 10.2 million tonnes along with higher normalised refining margins at $5 per barrel.

Brokerage: Ambit Capital | PAT Rs 1,442.7 crore

It expects sequentially lower PAT due to lower marketing margin on weaker diesel and petrol profitability and higher forex-related loss. “We build in clean GRMs of $5.1 per barrel and inventory gains of $0.9 per barrel for the quarter.”

Brokerage: Axis Capital | PAT: Rs 2,360 crore

The brokerage firm expects GRM at $8 per barrel (including inventory gains of $1 pe barrel) and slight reduction in refining throughput QoQ. “We expect Rs 400 crore of inventory gains in marketing business coupled with 5% QoQ increase in marketing margin.”

ICICI Securities | PAT: Rs 2,106.8 crore

ICICI Securities said that revenues are expected to increase 10.1% QoQ to Rs 90,786.7 crore on account of a rise in product realisations due to high crude oil prices.

GRMs are expected to decline QoQ to $7 per barrel against $7.5 per barrel in Q1FY19 mainly on account of weak product spreads and lower inventory gains.

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