* German export, U.S. jobs data underpin CEE currencies
* Upcoming CPI figures in the region may show pick-up
* Polish central bank unlikely to change loose stance
By Sandor Peto
BUDAPEST, July 9 (Reuters) - Central European currencies
mostly firmed on Monday as strong German export data soothed
worries over global economic growth, after Friday's U.S. job
figures did not lead to expectations of faster Federal Reserve
interest rate hikes.
The dollar, whose strength caused a sell-off in
emerging markets in the past months, retreated against the euro.
Concerns that trade disputes between the United States and
other powers could hit global growth also weighed on the
region's assets in the past weeks.
May German trade data showed a widening surplus, indicating
that Europe's biggest economy and Central Europe's key trade
partner was in robust form despite the trade tensions.
The forint and the Czech crown firmed
0.1 percent against the euro. The zloty gained 0.4
percent, to trade at 4.3414 at 0752 GMT.
The zloty's 3.8-percent loss since the end of 2017 is now at
par with the forint.
They are the region's most liquid units, and monetary policy
has been loose in both countries, even though the Hungarian
central bank (NBH) in the past weeks has given up its pledge to
keep rates at record lows for years.
The change has helped the forint partially recover from
record lows hit beyond 330 against the euro a week ago.
It touched a 3-week high at 322.58 on Monday, approaching
the 320 psychological level, before retreating to 323.15.
Hungarian government bonds also firmed slightly, with their
yields dropping by 1-3 basis points from Friday's fixing,
despite forecasts that June data due on Tuesday could show the
first rise in annual inflation to above the middle of the NBH's
2-4 percent target range since January 2013.
Czech and Romanian inflation data due later this week may
also show a pick-up in inflation.
"The Czech koruna (crown) moved back below EURCZK 26, but
still not enough to please the central bank, which may consider
another hike in August, as the currency remains too weak to meet
the inflation target this year," Erste analysts said in a note.
Poland already reported June inflation figures which were
below expectations, therefore are unlikely to make the central
bank give up its loose policy stance at its meeting on
Wednesday, analysts said.
Standard & Poor's on Friday raised its forecast for Polish
economic growth this year to 4.7 from 4.7 percent, and cut its
average inflation projection to 1.7 percent from 2.5 percent.
The improved international sentiment and the dollar's
retreat help the zloty rebound, analysts said.
"In our opinion, the zloty will move towards the level of
4.3233 for EUR in the absence of new threats," Bank Millennium
analysts said in a note.
It traded at 4.3414 at 0752 GMT, and Warsaw led a
rise in regional stock indices, with 0.7 percent gain.
CEE SNAPSHOT AT
MARKETS 0952 CET
CURRENCI
ES
Latest Previous Daily Change
bid close change in 2018
Czech <EURCZK= 25.8910 25.9100 +0.07% -1.35%
crown >
Hungary <EURHUF= 323.1500 323.3500 +0.06% -3.79%
forint >
Polish <EURPLN= 4.3414 4.3582 +0.39% -3.80%
zloty >
Romanian <EURRON= 4.6615 4.6600 -0.03% +0.39%
leu >
Croatian <EURHRK= 7.4050 7.3964 -0.12% +0.34%
kuna >
Serbian <EURRSD= 117.9300 118.0000 +0.06% +0.48%
dinar >
Note: calculated from 1800 CET
daily
change
Latest Previous Daily Change
close change in 2018
Prague 1078.54 1077.560 +0.09% +0.04%
0
Budapest 35959.72 35775.73 +0.51% -8.68%
Warsaw 2166.86 2152.06 +0.69% -11.96%
Bucharest 7869.62 7835.34 +0.44% +1.49%
Ljubljana <.SBITOP 875.87 875.61 +0.03% +8.62%
>
Zagreb 1804.02 1803.60 +0.02% -2.11%
Belgrade <.BELEX1 734.05 736.14 -0.28% -3.39%
5>
Sofia 633.40 633.69 -0.05% -6.50%
BONDS
Yield Yield Spread Daily
(bid) change vs Bund change
in
Czech spread
Republic
2-year <CZ2YT=R 1.2790 0.0020 +196bps +0bps
R>
5-year <CZ5YT=R 1.6430 0.0210 +193bps +1bps
R>
10-year <CZ10YT= 2.1910 -0.0040 +189bps -2bps
RR>
Poland
2-year <PL2YT=R 1.6450 0.0020 +232bps +0bps
R>
5-year <PL5YT=R 2.5280 0.0050 +282bps +0bps
R>
10-year <PL10YT= 3.2070 0.0030 +290bps -1bps
RR>
FORWARD RATE AGREEMEN
T
3x6 6x9 9x12 3M
interban
k
Czech Rep 1.40 1.60 1.74 1.17
<PRIBOR=
>
Hungary 0.69 0.97 1.21 0.30
Poland 1.75 1.79 1.86 1.70
Note: FRA are for ask prices
quotes
*************************************************
*************
(Additional reporting by Marcin Goclowski in Warsaw
Editing by Andrew Heavens)
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