Forex technical analysis: No help from the ADP. EURUSD trades between MAs

Up and down day for the EURUSD

The retail sales in the EU were weaker at -0.5% vs +0.3% estimate.

The Catalonia crisis deepens with King Felipe in a rare national address, lashed out at secessionists but the leaders of the region responding that they would declare independence.

That is the type of news that should have sent the EURUSD lower (or so you would have thought).

The EURUSD has had ups and downs during the day so far, but contrary to expectations from the news, it is higher on the day (the pair closed 1.1742). Note however, that the range is relatively narrow at 54 pips vs an 22 day average of 85 pips.

The ADP employment report came in as expected at 135K (right on the estimates). The EURUSD which was trading near the high of the day, has come down a bit but the move is only about 15 pips. We did not really get a big push off the data.

Nevertheless, technically, the pair is back down testing its 100 hour MA at 1.17655 (blue line in the chart above). The pair moved above that MA in the Asian session, moved back below in the early European session, but rebounded back above later in the London morning session. The pair has been able to stay away from the 200 hour at 1.18007 level. Of course being at a natural level like 1.18000 makes the level more of an interest as resistance. If there is a rebound during the day, expect sellers to lean against the level with stops on a break.

A move back below the 100 hour MA, will be eyed for momentum back down toward the closing level. The London session low came in at 1.1746 - 4 pips from that level. I would not be surprised to see buyers against the level on the dip. A move below, however, would turn the tide to the negative side for the day. That can be a catalyst for further selling. So I would expect dip buyers to trade cautiously against the level - simply looking for a technical bounce.

The ADP came and went with no major fireworks. Will PMI and ISM data give a push? Those releases are up next? Will the technicals cause some movement? Perhaps. Yellen gives opening remarks at a community banking conference at 3:15 PM ET/1915 GMT.

We are currently seeing a dip below the MA at 1.1765. Sellers are trying to give a little nudge at least.

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