Forex technical analysis: EURUSD gets close to key support targets. Bounces.

Earlier fall below the 100 hour MA got the ball rolling.

Today, the pair opened lower - in fact a few pips below the 100 hour MA at 1.1786 (opened at 1.1782). The price moved higher and approached the Friday close at 1.1810 (high reached 1.1807). The next move below the 100 hour MA turned the buyers into sellers. The price moved lower. The price moved toward a key support area. That comes in at:

38.2% retracement of the move up from the June low at 1.1720
The low from last week's trading at 1.1716
The swing high from August 2015 at 1.1711
The 200 week MA at 1.1709.

The low today reached 1.1729. It wasn't in the cluster of support between 1.1709 and 1.1720, but buyers may have been "early leaners" given all the technical levels. The price is back up to the 1.1750-60 area (the high correction reached 1.1762).

What next?

The train left the station for shorts on the break of the 100 hour MA. Looking at the 5-minute chart below, the price fell below that level (the 2nd time today) and stayed below (bearish).

We know what is below at 1.1709/20.

The price has moved above the 100 bar MA on the 5-minute chart currently at 1.17489, but remains below the 200 bar MA at 1.17697 and the 100 hour MA which has moved down to 1.17734. That area - between the 1.1769 to 1.1773 is risk for shorts and will define the bullish or bearish bias today. Stay below is more bearish. Move above is more bullish (some of the shorts give up on the break).